Employee Turnover Research

What the research shows about why people leave, what makes them stay, and why most companies get retention wrong.

Our Approach to Research

We don't conduct primary academic research. We read it, synthesize it, and figure out how to apply it.

The insights on this site come from established sources: Gallup's workplace research, SHRM's turnover cost studies, the Work Institute's retention reports, and peer-reviewed neuroscience on manager behavior and employee decision-making.

Our contribution is translating that research into something managers can actually do. Daily behaviors. Early warning signals. Interventions that work before it's too late.

The Core Research We Build On

Turnover Cost Research

Source: SHRM (Society for Human Resource Management)

The replacement cost of an employee ranges from 50% to 200% of their annual salary, depending on role complexity. Most companies track turnover rate but not turnover cost. The difference matters.

What we do with it: Our Turnover Cost Calculator helps companies see their real numbers, not industry averages.

Manager Impact Research

Source: Gallup State of the Global Workplace

Managers account for 70% of the variance in team engagement. The research is clear: people don't leave companies, they leave managers. But most manager training focuses on performance reviews and goal-setting, not the daily behaviors that determine whether someone stays or goes.

What we do with it: The CLOVER Framework operationalizes manager behaviors into daily micro-actions with measurable signals.

Turnover Prediction Research

Source: Work Institute Retention Report

Most voluntary turnover is preventable. Employees who leave cite reasons their managers could have addressed: career development stalls, poor communication, feeling unheard. The problem isn't that people leave. It's that they decide to leave weeks or months before anyone notices.

What we do with it: Our platform surfaces warning signals during the 67-day window between deciding to leave and actually resigning.

Restructure Turnover Research

Source: Multiple longitudinal studies on post-layoff attrition

Companies that conduct layoffs typically see 15-25% additional voluntary turnover in the following 12 months. The people who survive the cut often leave anyway. Survivors see how the company treats people and update their own risk calculations.

What we do with it: Turnover After Restructure explains the mechanism and what to do about it.

Neuroscience of Workplace Behavior

Sources: Paul Zak (oxytocin and trust), Amy Edmondson (psychological safety), dopamine feedback studies

The brain science behind why annual surveys fail and daily check-ins work. Why vulnerability builds trust. Why managers who ask questions retain more people than managers who give answers.

What we do with it: The Neuroscience of Employee Engagement (book, March 2026) synthesizes this research into a practical framework for managers.

Deep Dives

Detailed analysis applying this research to specific problems:

Books

The Trillion Dollar Problem

By Clive Hays, Neil Hays, and Charlene Newton
Available now on Amazon

The scale of employee turnover globally and why traditional approaches fail. A framework for thinking about retention as a system problem, not an individual problem.

The Neuroscience of Employee Engagement

By Clive Hays, Neil Hays, and Chad Williams
Coming March 2026

The brain science behind why people stay or leave. How managers can use neuroscience principles in daily interactions to build the kind of environment where good people want to remain.

External Research Sources

We recommend these primary sources for anyone wanting to go deeper:

Gallup - State of the Global Workplace Report

Annual research on employee engagement, manager impact, and workplace trends.

SHRM - The Real Costs of Recruitment

Methodology for calculating true replacement costs.

Work Institute - Retention Report

Annual analysis of why employees leave and what's preventable.

Harvard Business Review - What Great Managers Do

Marcus Buckingham's research on manager behaviors that drive retention.

About the Authors

Clive Hays brings 20+ years of Fortune 500 transformation experience to understanding why organizational change efforts succeed or fail. Co-author of both books.

Neil Hays spent 20 years in supply chain and engineering transformations, watching the same retention patterns repeat across industries. The question that started Clover ERA: "What if managers could see the patterns forming before it's too late?" Co-author of both books.

Chad Williams has 20 years of experience in global manufacturing, energy, and tech. His insight: managing engagement across hundreds of people is "impossible management" without systems that surface signals automatically. Co-author of The Neuroscience of Employee Engagement.

Apply This Research

Understanding the research is step one. Applying it is harder. The CLOVER Framework translates research into daily manager behaviors. The Clover ERA platform surfaces early warning signals and tracks whether interventions work.